考虑多价值链协同的电力设备制造企业经营风险预测研究

Research on Business Risk Prediction of Power Equipment ManufacturingEnterprises Considering Multi-value Chain Collaboration

电力设备制造企业作为影响我国能源经济发展的基础化产业,如何有效提升其产业基础能力,降低企业生产经营过程中存在的风险是当前面临的重要问题。而准确的风险预测能够帮助企业经营者发现潜在风险,保障企业利益。因此,本文从多价值链协同的角度进行电力设备制造企业的经营风险预测研究。首先,利用蒙特卡洛法构建多价值链风险因素概率模型,然后利用随机森林、天牛须搜索优化算法及卷积神经网络构建了多价值链协同的三阶段经营风险预测模型,并进行实证分析。研究结果表明,多价值链协同的三阶段经营风险预测模型能够有效提高经营风险预测准确度,为电力设备制造企业未来准确预测风险和管控风险提供基础支撑。

Power equipment manufacturing enterprises are the basic industry of China’s energy economy development.How to effectively enhance its industrial base capacity and reduce the risks in the process of production and operation of enterprises is an important issue.Accurate risk prediction can help business operators identify potential risks and protect business interests.Therefore,this paper conducts a study on the business risk prediction of power equipment manufacturing enterprises from the perspective of multi-value chain collaboration.First,this paper uses Monte Carlo method to construct a probabilistic model of multi-value chain risk factors.Then a three-stage operational risk prediction model with multi-value chain collaboration is constructed and empirically analyzed by using random forest,beetle antennae search algorithm and convolutional neural network.The research results show that the model with multi-value chain collaboration can effectively improve the accuracy of operation risk prediction and provide basic support for power equipment manufacturing enterprises to accurately predict risks and control risks in the future.