基于灰色模型的我国公共卫生事业投入预测研究

Research on Prediction of Public Health Investment in China Based on Grey Model

目的:对新医改以来我国公共卫生投入现状和投入结构进行分析。方法:综合运用《中国卫生统计年鉴》和《国家财政公共财政支出决算报表》,对我国公共卫生投入进行描述性分析和比较研究,运用灰色模型预测2030年我国公共卫生事业投入需求。结果:我国当前公共卫生投入占政府卫生投入和卫生总费用比例较低,2019年仅为12.28%、3.36%。公共卫生机构费用占卫生总费用比例仅5.79%。2030年我国公共卫生投入预计达6 449.47亿元,但财政支持远低于公立医院与医疗保障,预防性工作的财政资金规模仍然较小。结论:政府应建立健全公共卫生投入经费动态调整机制;优化财政支出结构和资金分配方式并重视医防融合背景下复合型公共卫生人才培养。

Objective:To analyze the current situation and input structure of public health investment in China since the new medical reform.Methods:By comprehensively using the Health Statistical Yearbook and Financial Final Accounts, it makes a descriptive analysis and comparative study on public health investment in China, and uses the grey model to predict China’s public health investment demand in 2030.Results:At present, the proportion of public health investment in government health investment and total health expenditure are low, only 12.28% and 3.36% in 2019. The cost of public health institutions accounts for only 5.79% of the total health cost. In 2030, the public health investment is expected to reach 644.947 billion yuan, but the financial support is far lower than that of public hospitals and medical security, while the scale of financial funds for preventive work is still small.Conclusion:It is suggested that the government should establish and improve the dynamic adjustment mechanism of public health investment;optimize the structure of fiscal expenditure and the mode of fund distribution, and pay attention to the cultivation of compound public health talents under the background of medical prevention integration.