日本自民党内路线之争与中日关系

The Debate over Political Lines within Japan's Liberal Democratic Party and China-Japan Relations

2021年10月4日岸田文雄成为日本首相,意味着日本自民党内温和派宏池会时隔28年重新掌权。现任首相岸田与前首相安倍晋三之间的政治博弈,以及自民党内宏池会与清和会之间的权力争夺和政治路线对立,预示着日本内政外交将有可能出现调整。但从岸田执政半年多来的情况看,岸田内阁同样力主修宪强军,涉华消极动向也不少;安倍领导党内最大派阀,其政坛影响力和党内地位仍十分突出。与过去相比,当前日本朝野政党以及自民党内部的对华认知和政策主张具有明显的趋同性,只是在具体对华牵制施压的手法和程度上有所不同。由于党内右派势力强大,岸田的对华政策还将继续受到党内外牵制,今后中日关系将呈现机遇与挑战并存的局面。

On October 4,2021,Fumio Kishida became Prime Minister of Japan,which means that Kochikai,a moderate poltical faction with Japan's Liberal Democratic Party,returning to power after 30 years.The rising political game between current Prime Minister Kishida and former Prime Minister Shinzo Abe and the struggle for power and political lines between Kochikai and Seiwakai indicates that there may be adjustment of Japan's politics and diplomacy.However,judging from the situation since Kishida took office,the Kishida administration has advocated policies of amending the Constitution and strengthening the military power,and there were many negative trends related to China.Abe leads the biggest faction in the party,and his political influence and position remain prominent.Compared with the past,the current cognition and policy propositions on China in Japan,the ruling and opposition parties and the LDP are similar,but the specific methods and degree of posing pressure on China are different.Kishida's China policy will continue to be influenced by the rightist political forces in the LDP,and China-Japan relations will present both opportunities and challenges in the future.