金融结构市场化推升了系统性金融风险吗——基于国际对比的实证研究

Does Marketization of Financial Structure Promote Systemic Financial Risk——Empirical Research Based on International Comparison

本文基于2003—2017年间42个国家(地区)上市公司数据的实证研究表明:金融结构市场化与系统性金融风险显著正相关,金融结构市场化同时也蕴含了一定的系统性金融风险。基于国家(地区)的异质性分析表明,经济发展程度、政府监管质量、法律环境和金融发展水平显著影响金融结构市场化与系统性金融风险之间的正相关关系,一国(地区)经济发展水平的上升、政府监管质量的提升、法治环境的完善与金融发展水平的提高有助于抑制系统性金融风险。拓展研究表明,金融结构市场化与系统性金融风险呈倒U型关系,当金融结构市场化水平越过拐点3.2474之后,金融结构市场化水平的提升反而有助于抑制系统性金融风险。同时,金融结构市场化也可以降低企业杠杆率、促进企业创新发展。因此在推动金融结构市场化的同时防范与化解系统性金融风险至关重要。

Based on the empirical research on the data of listed companies in 42 countries(regions) from 2003 to 2017,this paper shows that there is a significant positive correlation between the marketization of financial structure and systemic financial risk, and the marketization level of financial structure contains high systemic financial risk. The heterogeneity analysis based on countries(regions) shows that the degree of economic development, the quality of government supervision, the legal environment and the level of financial development significantly affect the positive correlation between the marketization of financial structure and systemic financial risk. The rise of the economic development level of a country(region), the improvement of the quality of government supervision, the improvement of the legal environment and the improvement of the level of financial development can help curb systemic financial risks. The expansion research shows that the marketization of financial structure has an inverted U-shaped relationship with systemic financial risk. After crossing the inflection point 3.2474, the improvement of the marketization level can curb systemic financial risk. At the same time, the marketization of financial structure can also reduce the leverage ratio of enterprises and promote the innovation and development of enterprises. Therefore, it is very important to prevent and resolve systemic financial risks while promoting the marketization of financial structure.