中国特色农村现代化未来演变趋势与对策思考

Thinking on Future Evolution Trend and Countermeasures of Rural Modernization With Chinese Characteristics

正确把握中国特色农村现代化未来演变趋势是促进乡村振兴、加快实现农村现代化的基本前提。在梳理现有文献的基础上,文章首先归纳出中国农村现代化的内涵特征,然后构建了包括政府、城市、农村地区的易返贫群体和一般群体、农村村集体组织这五类行为主体的相互作用模型,最后运用系统动力学Vensim软件进行动态模拟,以此预判中国特色农村现代化未来的演变趋势。结果表明:(1)中国特色农村现代化水平呈现总体向上的发展趋势,但这种上升趋势会出现一定程度的波动,波动点将发生在2035年前后;(2)2035年前后的这次波动主要是由易返贫人口占比和乡村治理这两个方面的变化所推动的;(3)农村外部生态环境的变化、村级债务、人口老龄化和资金缺口也会对农村现代化进程产生显著的冲击。因此,在推进中国特色农村现代化的过程中,要重点关注2035年前后的这个特定阶段,及时消除村级债务、人口老龄化、农村外部生态环境以及乡村金融资源短缺所带来的冲击。

Correctly grasping the future trend of rural modernization with Chinese characteristics is the basic premise of promoting rural revitalization and accelerating the realization of rural modernization. On the basis of reviewing the existing literature,this paper firstly summarizes the connotation and characteristics of China’s rural modernization, then constructs the interaction model of five behavioral agents, including the government, urban, vulnerable groups to poverty and general groups in rural areas,and rural village collective organizations, and finally uses system dynamics Vensim software to simulate and predict the future evolution trend of rural modernization with Chinese characteristics. The results are shown as follows:(1) The level of rural modernization with Chinese characteristics presents an upward trend on the whole, but this upward trend will fluctuate to a certain extent,and the fluctuation point will occur around 2035.(2) The fluctuation around 2035 is driven mainly by changes in the proportion of people vulnerable to falling back into poverty and in rural governance.(3) The change of rural external ecological environment, village-level debt, aging population and capital gap will also have a significant impact on the process of rural modernization. Therefore, in the process of promoting the rural modernization with Chinese characteristics, we should focus on the particular stage around 2035, and timely eliminate the impact of village-level debt, aging population, rural external ecological environment and rural financial resources shortage.