海上运输通道关键节点安全韧性影响因素及评价

Influencing factors and evaluation of safety resilience of key nodes in maritime transportation channels

为评价海上运输通道关键节点在遭遇外部干扰过程中的韧性,科学衡量关键节点遭受外部干扰前的准备力、遭受外部干扰中的抵抗能力和遭受外部干扰后的恢复能力,运用霍尔三维结构模型,从自然条件、恢复能力和保障能力等3个方面对影响海上运输通道关键节点安全韧性的因素进行客观识别,并引入熵权法对指标进行客观赋权。对我国目前海上运输的16个关键节点的安全韧性进行评价,结果表明:马六甲海峡、龙目海峡、巽他海峡、望加锡海峡的安全韧性较好,苏伊士运河、曼德海峡、民都洛海峡的安全韧性处于适中水平。评价结果为我国合理规划国际货物运输通道、保障海上运输通道安全提供科学依据。

In order to evaluate the safety resilience of key nodes in maritime transportation channels during external interference,the preparation ability before external interference,the resistance ability during external interference and the recovery ability after external interference are scientifically measured.The influencing factors of safety resilience of key nodes in maritime transportation channels are identified objectively from natural condition,recovery ability and support ability by Hall 3D model,and the entropy weight method is introduced to objectively weight the indices.The safety resilience of 16 key nodes of Chinese maritime transportation is evaluated,and the results show that,the safety resilience of Malacca Strait,Lombok Strait,Sunda Strait and Makassar Strait is good;the safety resilience of Suez Canal,Mander Strait and Mindoro Strait is in a moderate level.The evaluation results provide scientific basis for China to reasonably plan international freight transportation channels and ensure the safety of maritime freight transportation channels.