基于灰色系统的矮塔斜拉桥悬臂施工挠度预测分析

Deflection Prediction Analysis of Extradosed Bridge Cantilever Construction Based on Grey System

矮塔斜拉桥的主要施工方式是悬臂施工,各节段的变形均会对桥梁成桥线形产生影响,而桥梁的竖向挠度更是决定了桥梁结构的线形,因此需要对桥梁的挠度进行预测。文中以完成施工节段的挠度数据实测值为原始数据,建立GM(1,1)与GM(2,1)2种灰色预测模型,对桥梁竖向挠度进行预测,并且进行残差校核。结果表明,2种方法都可以准确地预测下个阶段的挠度,并且残差与级比偏差值均小于0.1;其中GM(2,1)模型对靠后施工节段的挠度预测有较好的结果。

The main construction method of extradosed bridge is cantilever construction.The deformation of each section will affect the alignment of the bridge,and the vertical deflection of the bridge determines the alignment of the bridge structure,so it is necessary to predict the deflection of the bridge.Taking the deflection of the completed construction section as the original data,two grey prediction models GM(1,1)and GM(2,1)were established to predict the vertical deflection of the bridge and check the residual.By comparing the two prediction models,the results show that the two methods can accurately predict the deflection of the next stage,and both the residual and stage ratio deviation is less than 0.1.While,the GM(2,1)model has a good result for the prediction of the rear construction segment.