淮海经济区城市发展潜力评价及影响因素分析

Evaluation of Urban Development Potential and Analysis of Influencing Factors in Huaihai Economic Zone

论文采用潜力模型测算了淮海经济区20个城市的发展潜力,通过ESDA法和空间计量经济模型分析了淮海经济区发展潜力的全局集聚格局和局部集聚格局的演化情况,探讨了淮海经济区发展潜力的影响因素。研究发现,淮海经济区20个城市的潜力值得到了增长,地区之间的发展潜力存在显著的空间负相关与负溢出效应,当某个地区相邻区域的发展潜力变动1个单位时,将负向波及该地区的发展潜力变动-0.5509%并存在极化现象;产业结构水平、房地产依赖度、信息化水平和人力资本水平对淮海经济区发展潜力有正向影响,城镇化水平、企业数量、对外开放水平有负向影响,居民收入水平、金融发展水平、百度指数和研发投入水平对淮海经济区发展潜力影响不显著。基于以上结论,建议在制定提升区域发展潜力的政策时,要区别考虑不同因素的影响方向和影响程度,使政策更具有针对性,取得更好的政策效果。

This paper uses the potential model to measure the development potential of 20 cities in the Huaihai Economic Zone, analyzes the evolution of the global agglomeration pattern and the local agglomeration pattern of the development potential of the Huaihai Economic Zone through the ESDA method and spatial econometric model, and discusses the Huaihai Economic Zone. Factors influencing development potential. The study found that the potential value of the 20 cities in the Huaihai Economic Zone has increased,and there is a significant negative spatial correlation and negative spillover effect in the development potential between regions. The development potential of the region is affected by-0.5509% and there is polarization;the level of industrial structure, real estate dependence, informatization level and human capital level have a positive impact on the development potential of Huaihai Economic Zone. The level of urbanization, number of enterprises, The level of opening to the outside world has a negative impact, and residents’ income level, financial development level, Baidu index and R&D investment level have no significant impact on the development potential of Huaihai Economic Zone. Based on the above conclusions, it is suggested that when formulating policies to enhance regional development potential, the influence direction and degree of influence of different factors should be considered differently, so as to make the policy more targeted and achieve better policy effects.