基于质和量测度视角的云南省州市城市化水平研究

Research on the Urbanization Level in Prefectures in Yunan Province from the Perspectives of Quality and Quantity Measurement

为了科学的测度云南省州市城市化水平,在国内已有的“城市化质量”理论和研究的基础上,结合云南省山地多平地少的自然地理状况,从“质”和“量”测度的视角完善土地城市化率指标,构建新的城市化测度体系,并用纵横向拉开档次法赋权。基于每个研究区12年的城市化水平数据,进行各个研究区城市化水平灰色系统预测模型构建,得出12个时间响应式,并对时间响应式进行了检验。用各地区的时间响应式预测出各地区2025年的城市化水平。进行三个时间节点的云南省州市城市化水平分析、城市化水平时间序列分析和城市化水平空间分析,结论为:(1)2006年、2017年和2025年云南省城市化水平总体偏低,但2025年有提升趋势;(2)2006年至2017年,大部分研究区的城市化水平都呈现降—升—降的变化特点;(3)滇中城市群为城市化水平高—高集聚区;(4)昭通市、文山州和普洱市为城市化水平低—高集聚区;(5)迪庆州、保山市、临沧市、西双版纳州为城市化水平低—低集聚区。

People’s life can be improved and social and economic development in the districts can be promoted through urbanization with high quality and quantity. In order to measure scientifically the urbanization level in prefectures of Yunnan Province, the paper, based on the theory of urbanization quality and taking into consideration the geographic features of more mountains than flatland in Yunnan Province, applies the“vertical and horizontal”scatter degree method to improve land urbanization index and establish new urbanization evaluation system from the perspective of quantity and quality. Based on the 12-year urbanization level data of each research area, the thesis carries the construction of gray system prediction model of urbanization level in each research area, and then obtains and tests 12 models to predict the urbanization level of each region in 2025. After analyzing three years’(herein referring to 2006, 2017 and 2025) datum in prefectures of Yunnan Province in terms of urbanization level, time series and space, the paper draws conclusions are as follows: 1) the holistic urbanization level of Yunnan Province is generally low in 2006, 2017 and 2025 when the urbanization level of Yunnan Province will be eventually improved;2) from 2006 to 2017, the urbanization level of most of the study areas showed the characteristics of“decline-rise-decline”;3) the central Yunnan urban agglomertaion is a high-high concentration area of urbanization;4) Zhaotong,Wenshan and Pu’er are lowhigh concentration areas of urbanization;and 5) Diqing, Baoshan, Lincang and Xishuangbanna are low-low concentration areas of urbanization. In the end, measures are put forward.