基于STIRPAT模型的中国海洋渔业碳排放驱动因素研究

Research on Driving Factors of China′s Marine Fisheries Carbon Emissions Based on STIRPAT Model

文章基于ORNL提出的碳排放测算方法对中国沿海11个省(自治区、直辖市)2009—2018年的海洋渔业碳排放进行测算,并通过加入财政分权和产业结构等因素,对传统STIRPAT模型进行拓展,考察中国海洋渔业碳排放驱动因素。研究结果显示:财政分权、经济发展水平、产业结构和科研投入是中国海洋渔业碳排放的重要驱动因素。其中由于财政分权体制不完善等原因,财政分权成为海洋渔业碳排放的正向驱动因素;经济发展水平对海洋渔业碳排放的正向影响随着经济发展水平的提高逐渐减弱;产业结构和科研投入是海洋渔业碳排放的负向驱动因素。基于此,文章建议优化完善财政分权结构和政府考核机制,加大科研投入,优化产业结构,从而促进海洋渔业低碳发展。

Based on the ORNL carbon emission measurement method,the marine fishery carbon emissions of 11 coastal provinces in China were calculated from 2009 to 2018,and by adding factors such as fiscal decentralization and industrial structure,the traditional STIRPAT model was expanded to examine the driving factors of China′s marine fishery carbon emissions.The research results showed that:fiscal decentralization,economic development level,industrial structure and scientific research investment are important driving factors for China′s marine fishery carbon emissions.Among them,due to the imperfect fiscal decentralization system and other reasons,fiscal decentralization has become a positive driving factor for marine fishery carbon emissions.The positive impact of economic development level on marine fishery carbon emissions gradually weakened with the increase of economic development level.Industrial structure and scientific research investment were the negative driving factors of marine fishery carbon emissions.Based on this,the paper proposed to optimize and improve the fiscal decentralization structure and government assessment mechanism,increase scientific research investment,optimize the industrial structure,and promote the low-carbon development of marine fisheries.