城镇化水平、农业劳动生产率与城乡融合发展——以吉林省为例

Urbanization level,agricultural labor productivity,and urban-rural integration development:Take Jilin Province as an example

根据刘易斯的二元经济理论,城镇化水平的提高有利于促进农业劳动生产率的增长,实现城乡融合发展。以吉林省各县为样本,利用《吉林统计年鉴》中吉林省39个县2004—2019年的数据,构建面板数据向量自回归模型(PVAR),通过格兰杰因果检验验证城镇化水平、农业劳动生产率和城乡融合发展之间的格兰杰因果关系,并通过脉冲响应函数和方差分解,对各变量长期的动态关系进行预测。结果发现,城镇化水平、农业劳动生产率和城乡融合发展之间具有显著的相关关系;且在短期时间内,来自农业劳动生产率的正向冲击能够对城乡融合发展产生正向促进作用;来自人口城镇化水平的正向冲击能够对农业劳动生产率产生正向促进作用,对城乡融合发展产生负向作用。在未来的1期、5期和10期内,来自农业劳动生产率、人口城镇化水平和产业城镇化水平的冲击对城乡融合发展的贡献率分别为7.05%、6.79%、6.82%,2.38%、2.19%、2.20%和4.39%、6.80%、6.86%,3个变量对城乡融合发展的冲击效果不强,且随着时间变化没有明显的增长趋势。

According to Lewis’dual economic theory,the improvement of urbanization level is conducive to promoting the growth of agricultural labor productivity and realizing the integrated development of urban and rural areas.Taking counties in Jilin Province as samples,using the data of 39 counties in Jilin Province from 2004 to 2019 in the“Jilin Statistical Yearbook”,a panel data vector autoregression model(PVAR)was constructed,and the Granger causality test was used to verify the level of urbanization,agricultural Granger causality between labor productivity and urban-rural integration development,and predicts the long-term dynamic relationship of each variable through impulse response function and variance decomposition.The results found a significant correlation between urbanization level,agricultural labor productivity,and urban-rural integration development.In a short period of time,the positive impact of agricultural labor productivity can positively promote urban-rural integration development.The positive impact of the level of industrialization can have a positive effect on agricultural labor productivity and a negative effect on the integrated development of urban and rural areas.In the next 1,5 and 10 periods,the impact from agricultural labor productivity,population urbanization level and industrial urbanization level will contribute 7.05%,6.79%,and 6.82%to the development of urban-rural integration;2.38%,2.19%,2.20%and 4.39%,6.80%,6.86%,the impact of the three variables on the development of urban-rural integration is not strong,and there is no obvious growth trend with time.