数字金融发展与区域金融稳定——基于中国省际面板数据的分析

Digital Finance and Regional Financial Stability:Analysis Based on China Inter-provincial Panel Data

数字金融作为数字科技与传统金融深度融合的产物,重塑了现代金融体系和金融业态,对中国金融稳定产生重要影响。运用2011—2018年中国31个省、自治区及直辖市的面板数据,采用固定效应模型,实证分析数字金融发展对区域金融稳定的影响效应。研究发现:数字金融发展对金融稳定具有显著的正向推动作用,其中使用深度的效果最明显,覆盖广度的作用较弱,数字化程度的作用不明显;数字金融对不同地区金融稳定作用效果存在显著差异,数字金融对东部金融稳定的推动作用要远远大于中西部,数字金融发展程度更高的东部对金融稳定的影响更显著;同时,通过内生性检验、稳健性检验及异质性检验得出金融稳定对数字金融发展具有反作用,数字金融对高城镇化率地区和低物质资本地区金融稳定的推动作用更显著,也进一步证实了数字金融对区域金融稳定的推动作用。根据实证结果,提出完善数字金融监管体系、平衡数字金融区域间发展、健全金融消费者权益保障体系等政策建议。

As the product of the deep integration of digital technology and traditional finance,digital finance has reshaped modern financial system and financial format and has an important impact on China financial stability.By using the panel data of China’s 31 provinces,autonomous regions and municipalities from 2011 to 2018 and adopting the fixed effect model,this study empirically analyzes the influence effect of digital financial development on regional financial stability.It is found that digital finance development has a significant positive role in promoting financial stability,among which the promotion effect of use depth is the most obvious while the effect of coverage is weak and the effect of digitization degree is not obvious;there are significant differences in the action effect of digital finance on financial stability in different regions:the promoting role of digital finance for financial stability in the east regions is much greater than that in the central and western regions,and the east regions with a higher degree of digital finance has a more significant impact on financial stability;and meanwhile,through the endogenous test,robustness test and heterogeneity test,it is concluded that financial stability has a negative effect on digital finance development while digital finance plays a more significant role in promoting the financial stability in the areas with high urbanization rate and low material capital,which also further confirms the promoting role of China digital finance in regional financial stability.Based on the empirical results,such policy suggestions are put forward as improving the digital financial supervision system,balancing digital finance development among regions,and perfecting the protection system of financial consumers’rights and interests.