大型体育赛事举办能够提升主办城市的房价吗?——基于2002—2018年全运会举办城市的准自然实验

Can Large-scale Sports Event Holding Raise Host City’s House Price:A Quasi-natural Experiment Based on 2002—2018 National Games Host Cities

大型运动会及赛事举办对主办城市的政治、经济、文化、环境等多个方面有重大的影响,其中对当地房地产市场的影响也不容忽视。主办城市因举办大型运动会而造成的房价赛前高涨或者赛后大跌都不利于城市的经济发展和社会稳定。基于2002—2018年地级市房价的面板数据,运用渐进式双重差分方法进行实证检验。研究发现,全运会的举办对主办城市的房价有正向作用,能够推动地区房价增长;通过异质性分析发现,这一作用对非直辖市和南方城市的影响更为明显;上述结论在多种稳健检验中保持不变;机制分析表明,土地、人口和城市宜居性都是提升全运会影响力的主要因素。基于此,主办城市应未雨绸缪,合理控制土地价格、留住人才稳定房价以及增加基础设施建设投入。

Large-scale sports games and sports event holding have a significant impact on the politics,economy,culture,environment and other aspects of the host city,among which their impact on the local real estate market can not be ignored.The pre-events rise or post-events fall in house price in the host city caused by holding large-scale sports games is not conducive to its economic development and social stability.Based on the panel data of the house price in prefecture-level cities from 2002 to 2018 and by using the progressive double difference method,an empirical test is conducted.It is found that the National Games holding has a positive effect on the house prices of the host city and can promote the growth of regional house prices;through a heterogeneity analysis,it is found that such an effect has a more obvious impact on non-municipalities directly under the central government and southern cities;the above conclusions remain unchanged in a variety of robust tests;and that the mechanism analysis shows that land,population and urban livability are all the main factors enhancing the influence of the National Games.Based on these research findings,the host city should have forethought,reasonably control land prices,retain the talents,stabilize house prices and increase the investments in infrastructure construction.