包头市秋冬季高影响天气变化特征分析

Characteristics of Autumn and Winter High-influence Weather Variation in Baotou

基于1951—2020年包头国家基本气象站逐日气候要素和天气现象资料,分析了该区域秋冬季多种高影响天气气候事件的发生强度和频率。结果表明:过去70年间,最大冻土深度以4.05 d/10 a的趋势显著下降,降雪日数、积雪日数、最大积雪深度、低温日数以及冰雹日数变化趋势总体平稳,略有下降,平均地面温度则以0.46 d/10 a的趋势缓慢上升。积雪日数和低温日数1月最多,降雪日数和冰雹日数分别是2月和9月最多。高影响天气气候事件发生的强度和频率可能会在全球气候变暖的背景下增加,因此,制定更多缓解与适应气候变化的策略是重中之重。

Based on the daily climatic elements and weather phenomenon data of Baotou National Basic Meteorological Station from 1951 to 2020, this paper analyzed the occurrence intensity and frequency of various autumn-winter high-influence weather and climate events in this region. The results showed that the maximum frozen soil depth had decreased significantly with a trend of 4.05 days/10 years in the past 70 years. On one hand, the change of snowfall days, snow days, maximum snow depth, low temperature days and hail days were generally stable,with a slight decrease. On the other hand, the average ground temperature rose slowly at a trend of 0.46 days/10 years. The snow days and low temperature days were the most in January, while the snowfall days and hail days were the most in February and September,respectively. The intensity and frequency of high-influence weather and climate events may increase in the context of global warming,so developing more mitigation and adaptation strategies remains a top priority.