城镇化、房价对居民消费的影响及作用路径研究

Urbanization, Housing prices, and Household Consumption

基于2006-2017年中国31个省级面板数据,利用固定效应模型分析城镇化、房价对居民消费的影响,构建中介效应模型,探究房价是否为城镇化对居民消费影响的中介变量。结果表明:(1)城镇化对居民消费的影响在全国层面以及东中西部都表现为促进作用,中部地区促进程度最高,西部地区促进程度最低;(2)全国层面、中西部地区房价促进居民消费水平提高,东部地区影响不显著;(3)全国层面、中部地区,城镇化、房价与居民消费之间存在部分中介效应,东西部表现为遮掩效应。

Based on the data of 31 provincial panels from 2006 to 2017,this paper uses the fixed effect model to analyze the effect of urbanization and the housing price on household consumption,and constructs an intermediary effect model to explore whether house price is the intermediary variable of the impact of urbanization on Residents’consumption.The results show that,first,the impact of urbanization on household consumption shows a promoting effect at the national level and in the eastern,central and western regions,with the highest promotion in the central region and the lowest promotion in the western region.Second,at the national level,in the middle and western regions,housing prices promote the improvement of household consumption level,and the impact is not significant in the eastern region.Third,at the national level and in the central region,there is a partial intermediary effect between urbanization,housing prices and household consumption,and suppressing effects in the East and West.