农村土地利用变化及其模拟研究进展

A Review of Researches on Rural Land Use Change and Its Simulation

通过梳理农村土地利用变化特征、驱动力及模拟预测等方面的相关文献,提炼研究中取得的成效及存在的问题。现有农村土地利用变化及驱动力研究多以耕地、农村居民点用地等单一土地类型作为研究对象,选取自然、社会经济等方面的驱动因子,未来需加强对农村土地利用系统的关注,考虑不同类型农户意愿的同时,重视企业、政府、城镇居民等相关主体决策行为的影响;现有针对农村土地利用系统变化的模拟研究相对较少,无论从环境约束指标选取、转换规则及综合规则的制定还是模拟平台的开发,都需要继续深入探讨研究,开发简单实用且适合我国农村特色的模拟平台是未来亟待解决的问题。

The characteristics,driving force,simulation and prediction of the rural land use change were reviewed bases on the relevant literature.Some effects and problems were put forward.In the current study,the study of rural land use change and driving force focused on single land type,such as cultivated land and rural residential area.The driving factors were selected mainly from natural,social economy and other aspects.Much attention will be given to the rural land use system in the future.Considering the willingness of different types of the farmers,attention should also turn to the decision-making behaviors of enterprises,governments and urban residents in the rural land use change.In addition,there were relatively few researches on the simulation of the rural land use change system.The study can be further explored from the following aspects:the selection of environmental constraints,the formulation of transformation and comprehensive rules and the development of the simulation platform.It is an urgent problem to develop the simulation platform suitable for rural characteristics in China in the future.