台风影响下的学校风灾风险评估模型研究——以浦东新区部分沿海学校为例

Study on Evaluation Model of School Wind Disaster Risk under the Influence of Typhoon

针对学校气象灾害风险的调查研究,台风风灾是影响学校安全的重要气象灾害之一,该文重点研究台风大风学校承灾体自身暴露度脆弱性风险指数的构建方法,完善原有气象灾害风险评估关注致灾因子的风险评估模式,通过对沿海学校的大风风险隐患点普查和各隐患点的脆弱性分析,结合各学校不同气象灾害防御能力现状,建立基于台风影响下风灾风险计算模型,形成风灾风险预评估产品。研究结果表明:本模型方法构建的风险指数可预评估出与实际较为符合的风险级别,实际应用而言更科学更合理,可为学校及时采取有针对性的防灾减灾措施提供依据。

Investigation and research on the risk of meteorological disasters in schools,typhoon disaster is one of the important meteorological disasters affecting school safety.This article focuses on the construction method of the dynamic risk index of the exposure vulnerability of some coastal schools in Pudong New Area under the influence of typhoon and gale,which changes the static risk assessment model of the single hazard factor of the strong wind.Based on the general survey of hidden risks of coastal schools and the vulnerability analysis of each hidden risk,combined with the current situation of different meteorological disaster prevention capabilities of each school,a dynamic wind disaster risk calculation model based on the influence of typhoons is established to form a wind disaster risk pre-assessment product.The research results show that the risk index constructed by the dynamic factor model method can pre-evaluate the risk level that is more in line with the actual situation.It is more scientific and reasonable in practical application,and can provide a basis for schools to take timely targeted disaster prevention and mitigation measures.