基于复杂网络的高校火灾灾害链分析及应急管理决策研究

Research on Fire Disaster Chain Analysis and Emergency Management Decision-making in Colleges and Universities Based on Complex Network

结合高校火灾灾害演化特征,基于国内外102起高校火灾案例总结出12个灾害次生衍生事件,基于复杂网络理论和灾害链演化机理对高校火灾次生衍生事件进行系统全面分析,建立高校火灾灾害链网络拓扑结构和风险评价模型,并计算出高校火灾灾害链风险度。综合灾害事件的致灾率、灾害损失度、灾害链脆弱度3个指标,以南京航空航天大学实验室爆燃事件为实例进行验证。研究结果表明,该模型与实际情况具有较高的吻合度,有利于提高高校火灾灾害急处置能力和决策水平,能够为高校防灾减灾策略的制定提供参考。研究发现,火灾发生前采取有效措施对灾害链重要节点进行积极管控,可降低火灾发生的风险;火灾发生后对关键边进行及时断链,可迅速阻断火灾的进一步发展和蔓延。

Combined with the evolution characteristics of College fire disaster and based on 102 college fire cases at home and abroad,12 secondary derivative events of disaster are summarized.Based on the complex network theory and disaster chain evolution mechanism,the secondary derivative events of College fire are systematically and comprehensively analyzed,the network topology and risk evaluation model of College fire disaster chain are established,and the risk degree of College fire disaster chain is calculated.Taking the deflagration event in the laboratory of Nanjing University of Aeronautics and Astronautics as an example,the three indicators of disaster incidence,disaster loss and disaster chain vulnerability are integrated.The results show that the model has a high degree of coincidence with the actual situation,which is conducive to improve the emergency response ability and decision-making level of fire disasters in Colleges and universities,and can provide reference for the formulation of disaster prevention and reduction strategies in Colleges and universities.It is found that taking effective measures to actively control the important nodes of the disaster chain before the fire can reduce the risk of fire;After the fire,the chain of key edges can be broken in time,which can quickly block the further development and spread of the fire.