非常规灾害防治时空挑战纾解的敏捷路径

Agile Ways to Alleviate Temporal and Spatial Challenges of Unconventional Disaster Prevention and Control

非常规灾害防治实践面临难以及时有效应对的时空挑战,包括被动响应的时空动态挑战、碎片化治理的非耦合挑战、快速决策的时空数据挑战与复杂耦合系统的统筹挑战,灾害防治亟需一种敏捷高效、动态响应、协调耦合、全面统筹的顶层设计。该文系统考察了敏捷治理理论与灾害防治需求间的契合性,并构建了开放性的敏捷灾害防治“时空(Time-Space)”二维螺旋模型,应用敏捷方法为灾害防治工作的设计、实现和部署提供了一个全面的框架,为纾解灾害防治的时空挑战,并在灾害防治全流程中达成迭代学习、技术介入和松散耦合的高效治理提供了一条敏捷路径。

The practice of unconventional disaster prevention and control in China is faced with temporal and spatial challenges that are difficult to respond to in time and effectively,including temporal and spatial dynamic challenges of passive response,non-coupling challenges of fragmented governance,temporal and spatial data challenges of rapid decision making and coordination challenges of complex coupled systems.Disaster prevention and control is in urgent need of an agile,efficient,dynamic response,coordination and coupling,overall planning of the top-level design framework.This paper systematically examines the fit between agile governance theory and disaster prevention requirements.An open“time-space”two-dimensional spiral model for agile disaster prevention and control is constructed in this paper.The agile method applied in the model provides a comprehensive framework for the design,implementation,and deployment of disaster prevention and control work.It provides an agile path to alleviate the temporal and spatial challenges of disaster prevention and control and achieve efficient governance of iterative learning,technological intervention,and loose coupling in the whole life cycle of disaster.