基于震害率经验模型分析供水管道地震易损性

Study on Seismic Vulnerability of Water Supply Pipeline Based on Empirical Model of Seismic Damage Rate

为了建立基于连续地震动参数的各类供水管道地震易损性模型,基于供水管道震害率经验统计模型,假设供水管道在地震作用下发生的破坏处数满足泊松分布,结合管道地震破坏等级划分标准,给出了不同管材供水管道的地震易损性矩阵,利用双参数对数正态分布函数进行拟合,得到了6种管材供水管道基于PGA的地震易损性曲线。结果表明:各管材供水管道的地震易损性曲线均能通过具有95%置信率的拟合优度检验,且基于易损性曲线得到的地震损失率和基于震害率所得到的地震损失率基本一致。

In order to establish the seismic vulnerability model of various water supply lines based on continuous ground motion parameters,we firstly assume that the number of earthquake damage of water supply lines meets Poisson distribution,then we use the empirical statistical model of seismic damage rate of water supply and the classification standard of pipeline damage grade,to put forward the seismic vulnerability matrix of water supply lines of different materials.We obtain the seismic vulnerability curves of six kinds of water supply lines based on PGA by fitting the two-parameter lognormal distribution function.The results lay a foundation for the comprehensive analysis of the loss rate of the whole water supply network in future,and provide support for the analysis of the seismic loss rate of the water supply network in the seismic insurance of water supply facilities.