推测火力发电厂地震易损性的计算方法

Study on the Calculation Method of Inferring the Seismic Vulnerability of Thermal Power Plants

发电厂的地震易损性研究对于电力系统的震害防御和地震经济损失风险分析工作具有重要意义。本文提出一种推测火力发电厂地震易损性的计算方法。根据美国关于火力发电厂的研究成果和中国变电站地震易损性矩阵,假定在火力发电厂与变电站的震害指数期望值相同时,其分布的离散性也相同的前提下,利用Beta分布函数和对数正态分布的累积函数,计算了火力发电厂在不同地震烈度下的地震易损性矩阵,拟合了基于地震动峰值加速度的火力发电厂地震易损性曲线,确定了基于地震动峰值加速度的火力发电厂地震易损性矩阵。结果表明:该方法计算得到的火力发电厂地震易损性适用于我国以燃煤和天然气作为燃料的火力发电厂。

The study on the seismic vulnerability of power plants is of great significance to the earthquake damage prevention of the plant's power systems and the risk analysis of the economic losses from earthquakes.This paper presentes a calculation method for inferring the seismic vulnerability of thermal power plants.According to the research results of the relationship between the loss ratio and the earthquake intensity of thermal power plants in the United States,and the research results of the seismic vulnerability of substations in China,assuming that when the expected values of seismic damage indexes of thermal power plants and substations are the the same,discreteness distributions of these expected values are the same,and using the Beta distribution function and the cumulative function of log-normal distribution,the seismic vulnerability matrix of thermal power plants subjected to seismic intensities is calculated,and the seismic vulnerability curves of thermal power plants based on the peak ground acceleration are fitted.