基于法院判决书的中国人口拐卖犯罪空间特征及变化分析

Analysis on the Spatial Characteristics and Changes of China’s Population Trafficking Crime Supported by Court Judgment

基于近年来的法院判决书,分析案件发生地(包括拐出地、中转地与拐入地)的空间聚集及转移特征,并利用法院判决书中的犯罪事实,分析拐卖路线的时空特征,为动态防控拐卖案件发生提供支持。结果表明,1974—2020年间人口拐卖案件的发生频次总体上呈现平缓变化-急剧增多-快速下降的变化过程,空间上呈现“一源三汇”的分布特征;拐卖路线主要表现为西南-东南、西南-华北2条主要路线,聚集特征表现为省内及近距离邻省的路线较多;各省的拐卖案件相关性较强,拐出源头与主要拐入区涉及的省份涉及的关联最多;西南部的犯罪活动的聚集中心向更为隐蔽的省界山区转移,而中转地涉及的逐渐向广西、广东扩大,形成重要的中转地聚集区,拐卖犯罪主要以市内或省内流转为主。

Based on the legal judgments in recent years,the spatial aggregation and transfer characteristics of the place where the case occurred(including trafficking destination places,abducted places and transit places)was analyzed.And the criminal facts recorded in the legal judgment was used to analyze the time and space characteristics of the trafficking route to provide support for dynamic prevention and control of trafficking cases.The results show that the frequency of trafficking cases generally presents a change process of gentle change,sharp increase and rapid decline from 1974 to 2020,and presents the spatial distribution characteristics of“one source and three sinks”.The trafficking routes mainly represent two directions-“southwest to southeast”and“southwest to north”,and much more cases are gathered in the province or among neighboring provinces;The trafficking cases of most provinces are highly related,especially the source provinces and the main destination provinces.The concentration center of criminal activities in the southwest of China had shifted to the more hidden provincial border mountainous areas,and the transit areas gradually expanded to eastward forming an important transit area.