江西暴雨的气候特点及典型强降水特征分析

Climatic Characteristics of Rainstorm and Analysis of Typical Heavy Precipitation in Jiangxi

使用1980—2020年江西国家逐日降水资料,2016—2020年江西省国家站、区域站、景德镇市水文站、水库站的降水观测资料,采用数理统计方法,分析了江西省暴雨及强降水特征。主要结论如下:江西暴雨过程可分为局部暴雨、区域性暴雨、较强大暴雨、特强大暴雨与罕见大暴雨等5个级别。出现最多的月份是6月,占比25.6%,其次是5月和为7月。不同级别的暴雨分布有着明显的“金字塔”效应,向6月份高度集中。在大暴雨过程中,7月份出现的概率要明显高于5月份。江西极端强降水过程中,1 h雨强平均87.5 mm,最大可超100 mm;3 h平均175 mm,最大超200 mm,6 h平均达247 mm,最大可超300 mm,景德镇市极端强降水1 h、3 h、6 h的雨强特征与江西省极端强降水的平均情况接近。这些研究结果为景德镇市受强降水影响,江河水位暴涨,带来极端的洪涝灾害的预警预报提供了理论依据。

Using the daily precipitation data of Jiangxi Province from 1980 to 2020 and the precipitation observation data of Jiangxi national station,regional station,Jingdezhen hydrological station and reservoir station from 2016 to 2020,the characteristics of rainstorm and heavy precipitation in Jiangxi Province are analyzed by using the method of mathematical statistics.The main conclusions are as follows:the rainstorm process in Jiangxi can be divided into five levels:local rainstorm,regional rainstorm,strong rainstorm,extremely strong rainstorm and rare rainstorm.The most frequent month was June,accounting for 25.6%,followed by May and July.The distribution of rainstorms of different levels has obvious"pyramid"effect,which is highly concentrated to June.In the process of heavy rain,the probability of occurrence in July is significantly higher than that in May.In the process of Extreme Heavy Rainfall in Jiangxi,the average rainfall intensity in 1 h is 87.5 mm,and the maximum can exceed 100 mm;The average of 3 hours is 175 mm,the maximum is over 200 mm,the average of 6 hours is 247 mm,and the maximum can exceed 300 mm.The rainfall intensity characteristics of 1 h,3 h and 6 h of Extreme Heavy Precipitation in Jingdezhen city are close to the average of Extreme Heavy Precipitation in Jiangxi Province.These research results provide a theoretical basis for the early warning and prediction of extreme flood disasters caused by the sharp rise of river water level under the influence of heavy precipitation in Jingdezhen city.