基于Logistic回归模型网球男子单打运动员不同盘次制胜因素分析

An Analysis of the Winning Factors of Tennis Men’s Singles Players in Different Sets based on Logistic Regression Model

目的:利用Logistic回归模型分析优秀男子网球运动员不同盘次比赛的制胜因素。研究对象:参加2021澳大利亚网球公开赛男子单打所有男子网球运动员不同盘次制胜因素。方法:使用Excel2016对指标进行梳理,SPSS25.0各项变量指标进行相关度分析,然后再进行柯尔莫可洛夫-斯米洛夫检验(K-S检验),对筛选指标为正态分布的进行独立样本t检验,被筛选的其他指标进行非参数检验,将各项相关性不强的预选变量导入Logistic回归模型进一步分析。研究结果:(1)在网球男子单打比赛第一盘、第二盘和决胜盘比赛中,破发成功率、二发得分率都是制胜的关键影响因素,上网得分率也对第一盘获胜产生关键影响。(2)运动员在比不同盘次比赛时,破发得分率对比赛制胜的影响程度均为最高,第一盘和决胜盘接发球成功数对制胜的影响程度为最低,而第二盘对制胜影响程度最低是一发得分率;(3)不同盘次比赛制胜因子存在差异,区别在于第一盘的上网得分率和决胜盘的一发进区率不同。

This paper aims to analyze the winning factors of excellent tennis men’s single players in different sets by Logistic regression model.The research subjects are all men’s singles players in the 2021 Australian Open Tennis Championship.Methods: the Excel2016 was used to analyze the indexes and SPSS25.0 was used to analyze the correlation among each variable index, then the Kolmokolov-Smilov test(K-S test)and the independent sample t test were carried out, and the other selected indicators were tested by nonparametric tests and the preselected variables with low correlation were imported into the Logistic regression model for further analysis.Results :(a)In the first set, the second set and the deciding set, the service-break success rate and the second serve scoring rate are the key factors for winning.(b)the “service-break scoring rate” in different sets has the highest impact on the competition outcome, the “receiving success rates” in the second set and the deciding set have the lowest impact on the competition outcome;(c)There are differences in the winner factors in different sets.