2022年3月全球新型冠状病毒肺炎疫情风险评估

Risk assessment of global COVID-19 pandemic in March 2022

目的 评估2022年3月新型冠状病毒肺炎(COVID-19)疫情全球流行情况及对我国的输入风险。方法 根据美国约翰斯·霍普金斯大学公开发布的每日COVID-19疫情数据,结合牛津大学发布的政策严格性指数,采用流行病学描述方法,通过总体概述、WHO各区及重点国家疫情趋势综合评估和周边十四国疫情与防控政策综合分析,对全球COVID-19疫情风险进行综合、全面与及时的评估。对于各国评估结果,用“全球重点关注国家”、“WHO各分区一般关注国家”和“周边特别关注国家”予以表示。结果 与2022年2月相比,全球月新增确诊病例下降了11.58%,全球月新增死亡病例降低了32.27%,西太平洋区新增确诊和死亡呈快速上升趋势,月增长率分别为172.2%和94.5%。全球每新增5 000万确诊病例和500万死亡病例用时明显缩短。德国、英国、韩国和越南是全球重点关注国家;泰国和博茨瓦纳是对应WHO分区一般关注国家,不丹是周边十四国特别关注国家。结论 全球每日新增确诊病例和死亡病例3月整体呈下降趋势,但西太平洋区和欧洲区部分国家疫情仍愈加严重。对于重点国家要持续加强疫情监测,同时需特别关注周边国家疫情走势及防控政策,同相关机构建立沟通机制,互通有无,及时预警。

Objective To assess the global epidemic of Coronavirus disease 2019(COVID-19) in March 2022 and the risk of importation. Methods According to the daily COVID-19 data publicly released by Johns Hopkins University, combined with the policy stringency index published by the University of Oxford, an epidemiological description method was used to provide a comprehensive and timely assessment of the global epidemic risk through a general overview, a comprehensive assessment of the epidemic trends in WHO regions and key countries, as well as a comprehensive analysis of the epidemic and prevention and control policies in 14 neighbouring countries. The assessment results for each country are expressed as“countries of global concern”, “countries of the general concern in each WHO sub-region” and “neighbouring countries of special concern”. Results Compared with the previous month, the number of confirmed cases decreased by 11.58% and deaths increased by 32.27% globally in March 2022. Daily new confirmed cases and deaths in the Western Pacific region increased rapidly, with monthly growth rate 172.2% and 94.5%, respectively. The time taken for every 50 million new confirmed cases and 5 million deaths globally has decreased significantly. The United Kingdom, Germany, and Vietnam were countries with global concern. Thailand and Botswana were the countries of general concern in the corresponding WHO subregion. Bhutan was countries with special concern among the 14 neighbouring countries. Conclusion The global daily new confirmed cases and deaths showed a downward trend in March, but the epidemic situation was prominent in the Western Pacific region and some countries. It is necessary to continuously monitor countries with global focus and pay special attention to the prevention and control policies of neighbouring countries, establish a communication mechanism with relevant agencies to exchange information and provide timely warnings.