2017-2019年浙江省杭州市登革热流行特征和时空聚集性分析

Spatiotemporal distribution of dengue fever in Hangzhou, Zhejiang, 2017–2019

目的 探讨2017—2019年浙江省杭州市登革热输入性病例和本地病例的流行特征和时空分布特征。方法 在“中国疾病预防控制信息系统”中的“传染病监测”子系统中收集杭州市2017—2019年登革热病例信息,根据现场流行病学调查资料将病例分为输入性病例和本地病例,使用ArcGIS 10.2软件进行空间自相关分析及可视化呈现,使用SaTScan 9.4软件进行时空扫描分析。结果 2017—2019年杭州市共报告登革热病例1 424例,其中输入性病例223例,本地病例1 201例。2017年和2019年的发病具有空间聚集性特征,共得到36个本地病例高–高聚集区和37个输入性病例高–高聚集区。对本地病例进行时空扫描分析,共探测到3个聚集区,聚集时间皆在2017年8—10月,1类聚集区以江干区闸弄口街道为中心,涉及31个街道,主要位于主城区内。对输入性病例扫描共探测到3个聚集区,聚集时间都在2019年5—11月,1类聚集区以余杭区塘栖街道为中心,涉及29个街道。结论 杭州市登革热疫情存在时空聚集性特征,本地病例和输入性病例在聚集空间和时间,以及高发人群特征方面存在差异,建议根据区域和人群开展针对性防控措施,以更精准防控登革热疫情。

Objective To understand the epidemiological characteristics and spatiotemporal distribution of imported and local dengue fever cases in Hangzhou, Zhejiang province, from 2017 to 2019. Methods The incidence data of dengue fever in Hangzhou from 2017 to 2019 were collected from Infectious Disease Reporting Information Management System.According to the epidemiological survey data, the cases were divided into imported cases and local cases. Software ArcGIS10.2 was used for spatial autocorrelation analysis and visual presentation. Software Satscan 9.4 was used for spatiotemporal scan analysis. Results A total of 1 424 cases of dengue fever were reported in Hangzhou from 2017 to 2019, including 223imported cases and 1 201 local cases. The incidence in 2017 and 2019 showed significant spatial clustering, with a total of 36high-high clusters of local cases and 37 high-high clusters of imported cases. Spatiotemporal scanning analysis showed that a total of 3 clusters of local cases were detected, and the clustering time was between August and October in 2017. The class Ⅰcluster area was in Zhanongkou of Jianggan district, involving 31 sub-districts in the urban area, and 3 clusters of imported cases were detected, and the clustering time was between May and November in 2019. The class I cluster area was in Tangqi of Yuhang District, involving 29 sub-district. Conclusion Obvious spatiotemporal clustering of dengue fever cases was found in Hangzhou. There were some differences in spatiotemporal clustering and population distribution between local cases and imported cases. Different response measures should be taken in different areas for more precise prevention and control of dengue fever.