新疆某三甲医院急危重症患者流向预测分析

Prediction and analysis of the flow of acute and critical patients in a grade A hospital in Xinjiang

目的 了解急危重症患者的流向,为合理配置急诊医生等医疗资源,节省患者排队等候时间等提供理论依据。方法 选取本院2012年1月—2020年12月10年间急诊科所有留观患者86731例次急诊分诊分级为1、2级的危重患者的年龄、性别、民族、就诊时间等进行统计,使用2012年1月-2017年12月数据构建ARIMA模型并评价模型精度,预测2018年1月-2019年12月的留观患者就诊情况。结果 (1)按挂号年度、挂号月份、挂号星期、就诊时间段进行急危重症患者分析,在年龄、方面差异存在统计学意义(P <0.05),但留观时长上除年度差异无统计学意义。(2)模型拟合精度良好,预测2018年1月-2019年12月的留观患者就诊情况与实际值相符。结论 ARIMA模型拟合我院急危重症患者留观可用于留观患者预测分析及早期预警,有助于指导医疗资源分配。

Objective To understand the flow direction of acute and critical patients, so as to provide theoretical basis for rational allocation of medical resources such as emergency doctors and saving waiting time of patients. Methods The 86,731 patients who were admitted at the department of emergency and classified into class 1 and class 2 from Jan, 2011 to Dec, 2017 were selected as the subjects.Their ages, gender, rationality, and visit time were collected.. The ARIMA pattern were established by the data, and the pattern accuracy was estimated to predict the flow of patients from Jan, 2018 to Dec, 2019. Results(1)According to the registration year, registration month, registration week and treatment time period of patients with intensive care, a few statistical differences were founded in patients’ age, gender and registered time.(P < 0.05).(2)The fitting accuracy of the model was good, and the predicted treatment situation of patients from January 2018 to December 2019 was consistent with the actual value. Conclusions ARIMA model can be used for prediction analysis and early warning of patients, and it can help to guide the allocation of medical resources.