2022年中国成品油市场分析预测

Analysis and Prediction on the Chinese Refined Oil Market in 2022

疫情时有反复、税收新政实施、出口配额下降和市场监管从严等因素,对中国2022年的成品油供需形势产生较大影响。回顾了2021年中国成品油市场情况,在分析2022年中国宏观经济走势的基础上,展望了2022年成品油消费和供应情况,认为:虽有多个新炼油厂投产,但中国国内成品油消费增长有限;结合疫情对消费市场的冲击、政策变化对供应侧的影响,并综合考虑替代能源的发展等因素,预计2022年成品油终端消费量同比增长1.9%,其中汽油在乘用车保有量较快增长的拉动下持续增长,煤油消费仅恢复到2019年水平的82%,柴油消费在“双碳”政策背景下持续下降;中国国内成品油产需差预计继续收窄,供应过剩矛盾显著缓解。

Factors such as COVID-19 pandemic, new taxation policy, reduction of export quota and market supervision may cast a shadow over the supply and demand of Chinese refined oil in 2022. Reviewing the situation in 2021, the author predicted the picture of the refined oil consumption and supply and demand in 2022 based on China’s macro economy in 2022. It was regarded that the growth of refined oil consumption in China would be limited despite that new oil refineries were put into operation;in light of the impact of the pandemic on the consumption market, the influence of policy changes on supply side as well as the development of alternative energies, the terminal consumption of refined oil products was expected to increase by 1.9% year-on-year. Gasoline would continue to grow driven by the rapid growth of passenger car ownership while the consumption of kerosene would only recover to 82%of that in 2019. The consumption of diesel oil would continuously reduce against the background of “dual-carbon”strategy;China’s domestic demand gap for refined oil products was expected to continue to narrow, and the problem of oversupply would be significantly alleviated.