老龄化压力下自动化在经济增长中的内生机制分析

Analysis on the Endogenous Mechanism of Automation in Economic Growth under the Pressure of Aging

通过构建将自动化水平内生化的理论模型,研究老龄化、自动化对于经济增长的影响。结果表明,自动化在老龄化对经济增长的作用中发挥了中介效应,老龄化压力会倒逼企业提高自动化水平,并进一步促进产出的增长,从而对由劳动力减少给产出带来的负面影响起到抵消作用。利用我国省级面板数据进行实证后,结果也验证了老龄化通过自动化对经济增长产生的影响占18%左右,但这种中介作用随着自动化水平的提高呈现减弱的趋势。因此,在传统的“机器换人”的自动化基础上,必须实现更高级的人工智能,才能为经济持续增长提供良好动力。

By building a theoretical model of endogenous automation level, the impact of aging and automation on economic growth is studied. The equilibrium results show that automation plays an mediating effect in the role of aging on economic growth, and the pressure of aging will promote the improvement of automation, and further promote the growth of output, so as to offset the negative impact of the reduction of labor on output. After empirical analysis using provincial panel data in China, the results also verifies that this mediating effect is a partial mediating effect. The impact of aging on economic growth through automation is about 18% of the total impact of aging on economic growth. However, with the improvement of automation level, the mediating effect shows a trend of weakening. Therefore, on the basis of the traditional “machine replacement” automation, more advanced artificial intelligence must be realized in order to provide a good foundation for sustained economic growth.