城乡居民消费结构转型升级:趋同特征与演化路径

Transformation and Upgrading of Consumption Structure of Urban and Rural Residents:Convergence Characteristics and Evolution Path

居民消费结构升级是消费需求持续扩大和经济高质量发展的重要驱动力。本文基于1981—2018年城乡居民8大类消费支出数据,构建与应用非线性MS(M)-AR(p)模型对城乡居民消费结构的非线性趋同演化特征与路径进行研究。研究结果表明,我国城乡居民总体消费结构和具体支出的趋同演化过程中包含3种非线性趋同演化路径,交通通信、医疗保健等高层次消费项目对城乡居民消费结构趋同的贡献逐渐强化,居民消费倾向、收入水平等因素对趋同性形成具有重要影响。需要通过提高缩小居民收入差距等途径促进城乡居民消费结构的升级与趋同,激发消费市场潜力,发挥消费对居民生活和经济增长质量提升的作用。

The upgrading of residents’consumption structure is an important driving force for the continuous expansion of consumption demand and high-quality economic development.Based on the eight categories of consumption expenditure data of urban and rural residents from 1981 to 2018,this paper constructs and applies the nonlinear MS(m)-AR(p)model to study the nonlinear convergence evolution characteristics and path of consumption structure of urban and rural residents.The results show that the convergence evolution process of the overall consumption structure and specific expenditure of urban and rural residents includes three nonlinear convergence evolution paths.The contribution of high-level consumption projects such as transportation,communication and medical care to the convergence of consumption structure of urban and rural residents is gradually strengthened,and factors such as residents’consumption tendency and income level have an important impact on the formation of convergence.We need to promote the upgrading and convergence of the consumption structure of urban and rural residents by improving and narrowing the income gap,stimulate the potential of the consumption market,and give full play to the role of consumption in improving the quality of residents’life and economic growth.