国内价值链对接全球价值链:中国省域出口增加值获取路径分析

National Value Chain Connecting Global Value Chains:A Study on the Acquisition Path of China’s Provincial Value Added in Export

当前世界经济前景不确定性增加,贸易摩擦风险加剧。如果能够促进NVC对接GVCs,提高出口国内增加值率,将有利于我国规避外部风险,实现“稳外贸”目标。基于中国30个省市—世界投入产出表、假设提取法,测算出口增加值、GVCs直接出口增加值和NVC间接出口增加值对中国省域经济的贡献,探索NVC连接GVCs的路径。结果显示:NVC连接GVCs具有内陆到沿海和内陆到内陆两条路径;利用内陆到内陆路径获取出口增加值将更少的价值链环节暴露于外部风险下。

The current uncertainties in the world economic outlook have increased and the risk of trade friction has intensified.If we can promote NVC connecting GVCs and increase the domestic value added rate of exports,it will help China to avoid external risks and achieve the goal of“stable foreign trade”.Based on China’s 30 provinces-world input-output tables and hypothesis extraction methods,this paper estimates the contribution of value added in export,GVCs direct value added in export and NVC indirect value added to China’s provincial economy,and explores the path of NVC to connect GVCs.The results show that NVC-connected GVCs have two paths:from inland to coastal and inland to inland;using inland to inland routes to obtain export value added exposes fewer value chain links to external risks.