就地还是异地?--农业转移人口市民化地区选择的影响因素分析

On-site or Off-site?:An Analysis on Influencing Factors in Choosing Urbanization Areas for Agricultural Migrants

使用2016年中国流动人口动态监测调查数据,采用二元Logistic模型分析个体特征、就业特征、流动特征、家庭特征和住房特征对农业转移人口市民化地区选择意愿的影响,并进一步考察农业转移人口群体异质性在市民化地区选择意愿上所起到的作用。结果表明:年龄越大、非专业技术人员、流入地为非东部地区、流入城市非直辖市、在家乡城市已购买住房及有购买住房意愿的农业转移人口更愿意选择返回户籍地完成就地市民化,否则更倾向于选择在流入地完成异地市民化;不同代际、不同户籍的农业转移人口对市民化地区选择也有较大差异,且影响因素对两组群体的作用程度或方向有较大差异。因此,应对大城市、中小城市和小城镇分类制定不同的农业转移人口市民化支持政策。

Using the data from the 2016 China Migrant Population Dynamics Monitoring Survey and adopting the binary logistic model,this paper analyzes the influence of the characteristics of individual,employment,mobility,family,and housing on the willingness of agricultural transfer population in their choice of urbanization areas,and further investigates the role of the heterogeneity of the transferred population in their choice of urbanized areas.The results show that those migrants who are older,non-professional and technical,from regions other than the east and the municipalities directly under the central government,and those who have purchased or intend to purchase a house in their home cities are more willing to return to their home cities to realize urbanization;otherwise,they are more inclined to complete their urbanization in the place they flowed into;great differences exist in the choice of urbanization areas among agricultural transfer individuals of different generations and different household origins;the impact of the influencing factors on the two groups is rather different.Therefore,different urbanization support policies for the agricultural migrant population should be formulated in large cities,small and medium cities,and small towns.