延迟退休、人口抚养比及养老保险基金可持续性

Delayed Retirement Age,Population Dependency Ratio and Sustainability of the Pension Insurance Funds

2020年党中央明确提出将实施渐进式延迟法定退休年龄,延迟退休对于抑制劳动人口抚养比增长、缓解养老金支出负担具有积极意义。文章引入人口结构分析框架,量化衡量延迟退休时间跨度、提高退休年龄的速率对人口抚养比的影响,并通过精算模拟不同提高退休年龄的速率下养老金支出、基金结余的情况。结果显示:若在未来40年保持人口红利,则提高退休年龄的速率需大于0.33岁;未来的养老金支付压力主要来自于男性,约占养老金总支出的58%;提高女性退休年龄的速率对未来养老金支出的影响大于男性,其中女干部的影响最强,尽早实施延迟退休政策对于养老金支出负担的缓解程度优于提高退休年龄速率;当国有资产划充社保基金比例分别为5%、10%和20%时,可分别为延迟退休提供16.67%、50%、58%缓速空间。因此延迟退休时间跨度、提高退休年龄的速率应综合考虑性别差异以及未来人口、经济发展水平。

In 2020,the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China clearly proposed the implementation of delaying the retirement age.Delaying retirement age is of positive significance in curbing the growth of the dependency ratio and alleviating the burden of pension expenditure.This paper introduces a demographic analysis framework to quantitatively measure the impact of delayed retirement time span and the rate of raising the retirement age on the population dependency ratio,and calculates pension expenditures and fund balances at different rates of raising the retirement age through actuarial simulation.The results show:to maintain the demographic dividend in the next 40 years,the rate of raising the retirement age must be greater than 0.33 of age.The future pension payment pressure mainly comes from men,accounting for about 58%of total pension expenditure.Increasing the rate of women’s retirement age has a greater impact on future pension expenditures than men,with female cadres having the strongest impact.The early implementation of the delayed retirement policy will ease the burden of pension expenditures better than increasing the retirement age rate.When the proportion of state-owned assets allocated to the social security fund is 5%,10%,and 20%,respectively,16.67%,50%,and 58%can be provided for delayed retirement.Therefore,delaying the retirement time span and increasing the rate of retirement age should comprehensively consider gender differences,future population and economic development levels.