中国农村家庭存在储蓄率生命周期之谜吗

Do China’s Rural Households Exist the Puzzle of the Savings Life Cycle?

中国城镇家庭储蓄率—年龄曲线呈现为U型,与生命周期假说及国际经验相反形成了储蓄率生命周期之谜。为了验证中国农村家庭是否与城镇家庭相似,本文采用2010—2018年中国家庭追踪调查(CFPS)数据,基于APC模型对中国农村家庭储蓄率的生命周期模式进行识别,发现中国农村存在37~49岁的中年户主家庭储蓄率偏低的生命周期之谜。为了揭示其可能发生的作用机制,本文应用多重中介效应检验发现:(1)教育负担是造成中国农村中年户主家庭储蓄率偏低的首要原因;(2)控制教育负担的影响后,以交通通讯支出为代表的消费结构升级是拉低中年户主家庭储蓄率的另一主要原因;(3)社会成本支出显著地抑制了家庭储蓄率,但并不是形成中国农村家庭储蓄率生命周期之谜的根本原因。

The savings-age profile of China’s urban household is U-shaped,contrary to the life cycle hypothesis and international experience,which forms a puzzle with the savings life cycle.In this paper,we identify China’s rural household savings life cycle pattern based on the age-period-cohort(APC)analysis to verify whether the life cycle pattern of savings in China’s rural households is similar to urban households.Employing the microscopic data of China Family Panel Studies(CFPS)from 2010 to 2018,the decomposition results of the APC analysis indicate that the life cycle puzzle of low household savings rate in middle-aged heads of households aged between 37 and 49 years old also exists in China’s rural households.To reveal its possible mechanism of action,we use the mediating effect test and find that:(1)the heavy burden of education is the leading cause of low savings in middle-aged rural households in China;(2)Upgrading the consumption structure represented by transportation and communication expenditure is another key reason to lower the savings rate of middle-aged households after controlling for the implications of education expenditure.(3)The expenditure of social cost will drag down the savings rate of middle-aged households,but it is not the root cause of the puzzle of the savings life cycle of China’s urban households.