农地流转如何影响农村家庭养老计划——基于农地转出与农地转入视角的综合分析

How Does Farmland Transfer Affect the Rural Household Retirement Planning:Comprehensive Analysis Based on Farmland Outflow and Farmland Inflow

本文利用中国家庭金融调查(CHFS)2013年和2015年数据,研究了农地流转对农村家庭养老计划的影响及机制。研究发现,农地流转虽然对农村家庭制定养老计划没有显著影响,但是对于有养老计划的农村家庭,农地流转可以显著改变他们的养老计划方式。渠道分析表明,农地转出主要是通过弱化传统养老保障和促进非农经营活动参与的机制对农村家庭通过自己储蓄和投资的养老计划方式产生积极影响,而农地转入则主要通过缓解信贷约束和提升农业经营抗风险能力发挥积极作用。异质性分析表明,农地流转对社会保障与就业支出较低及流转面积较高地区的农村家庭的影响更大。倾向得分匹配、工具变量估计及更改模型设定等一系列稳健性检验都证实本文结论的稳健性。本文为推进我国农地流转、健全发展农村多层次养老保障体系,以及全面建成小康社会提供了一定的证据支持。

Using the data from the China Household Finance Survey(CHFS)in 2013 and 2015,this paper studies the effect of farmland transfer on rural household retirement planning and its mechanism.This study finds that farmland transfer has no significant influence on whether rural households have the retirement planning,but significantly changes the way of it,especially has a positive effect on the retirement planning of savings and investments.The channel analysis shows that farmland transfers have a positive impact on the way rural households plan their pensions through their own savings and investments,by weakening traditional old-age security and promoting participation in non-farm business activities mainly,while farmland transfers in have a positive effect mainly by easing credit constraints and increasing the resilience of farming operations to risk.Heterogeneity analysis showed that the impact of farmland transfers was greater for rural households in areas with lower social security and employment expenditures and higher transfer areas.This paper provides reliable pieces of evidence for the promotion of rural farmland transfer,the sound development of a rural multi-level pension security system,and the building of a moderately prosperous society in all respects of China.