摘要
京津冀地区是中国核心经济区的重要组成部分,也是碳排放重点区域,其碳排放早日达峰对实现国家达峰目标尤为关键。通过分析碳排放及影响因素的关系,构建碳排放系统动力学模型,并设置六种情景方案,模拟预测其对北京、天津和河北碳达峰时间、峰值及减排潜力的影响。结果显示:(1)基准情景下,北京已经实现碳达峰,天津预计2023年碳达峰,而河北则难在2035年前达峰。(2)协调发展情景即综合调控政策,较单一措施情景,各地区碳减排效果最优;其中,北京2020—2030年碳排放较基准情景下降13.52%,天津碳达峰可提前至2021年,河北则可在2030年达到峰值。(3)单一措施情景下,环保情景对北京碳减排作用最显著,而节能减排情景则是实现天津与河北碳达峰的最佳发展模式。
Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei(BTH)is not only one of core economic regions of China,but also the key area of energy consumption and air pollution of the country.The carbon emissions of this region account for about 1/5 of the country's total.The proposal of China's"carbon peak and carbon neutrality"target has aroused widespread concern from the domestic and international community.Therefore,exploring the carbon emission trend and reduction potential of the BTH region under different scenarios is of great significance for China to achieve the carbon peak goal by 2030 on schedule.By analyzing the relationship between carbon emission and its influencing factors,this paper constructs a dynamic model of carbon emission system in the study region.On this basis,six scenarios are set up from the perspective of industrial structure,energy intensity,energy structure,environmental regulation,science and technology investment,and comprehensive regulation to predict the impact of different schemes on the peak time and peak value and reduction potential of carbon emissions in Beijing,Tianjin and Hebei respectively.The results show that under the baseline scenario,according to the existing system behavior law,Beijing has reached its carbon peak,Tianjin is expected to reach its carbon peak in 2023,and Hebei is unlikely to reach its carbon peak before 2035.In the coordinated development scenario,that is,the comprehensive regulation policy,compared with the single measure scenario,the effect of carbon emission reduction in each region is the best.Among them,the carbon emissions of Beijing from 2020 to 2030 will decrease by 13.52%on average compared with the baseline scenario.The carbon peak time of Tianjin can be advanced to 2021,and the carbon emissions of Hebei can reach the peak in 2030.Under the single measure scenario,the environmental protection scenario has the most significant effect on carbon emission reduction in Beijing,while the energy conservation and emission reduction scenario is the best development model to achieve the carbon emission peak in Tianjin and Hebei.Meanwhile,considering the differences in the peaks of carbon emissions in Beijing,Tianjin and Hebei,China should formulate differentiated carbon peaking strategy and emission reduction path.
作者
韩楠
罗新宇
HAN Nan;LUO Xin-yu(School of Economics&Management,Yanshan University,Qinhuangdao 066004,Hebei,China;Regional Economic Development Research Center,Yanshan University,Qinhuangdao 066004,Hebei,China)
出处
《自然资源学报》
CSSCI
CSCD
北大核心
2022年第5期1277-1288,共12页
Journal of Natural Resources
基金
河北省教育厅科学研究计划项目河北省高等学校青年拔尖人才计划(BJ2020073)
河北省高等学校人文社会科学重点研究基地资助项目(JJ1901)
燕山大学国家社会科学基金培育项目(2021PY006)。
关键词
碳达峰
碳减排
系统动力学
情景预测
京津冀
carbon emission peak
carbon emission reduction
system dynamics
scene prediction
Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region