基于系统动力学的中国碳减排路径模拟

Simulation of China's carbon emission reduction path based on system dynamics

通过分析二氧化碳排放影响因素之间作用关系与碳减排的主要路径,构建二氧化碳排放系统动力学模型。在此基础上,通过调控供给侧经济增长速度、能源结构和产业结构要素,预测四种不同情景方案对二氧化碳排放的影响,以进一步探讨二氧化碳排放主要部门减排贡献。结果表明:四种方案的二氧化碳净排放量增长趋势逐年变缓,在二氧化碳净排放量达到峰值后,调整经济增速、改善能源结构和优化产业结构继续为碳减排发挥积极作用,相比于经济增速和产业结构调整,能源结构改善的减排贡献度更高。在综合调控经济增速、能源结构和产业结构的方案下,中国二氧化碳净排放量2024年将达到高峰值104.45亿t,2058年实现碳中和,这与现实情况更加吻合。未来若能抓住经济、能源、产业低碳转型的良好机遇,并进一步加强各部门的减排努力,中国二氧化碳净排放量有望2025年前达峰,2060年前实现碳中和。

A system dynamics model of carbon dioxide emissions was constructed by analyzing the relationship among the influencing factors of carbon dioxide emissions and the main paths of carbon emission reduction.On this basis,the impact of four scenarios on carbon dioxide emissions were forecasted by regulating the economic growth rate of the supply side,energy structure and industrial structure so as to further discuss the contribution of major departments of carbon dioxide emission reduction.Results show that the trend of the net growth of carbon dioxide emissions slows down year by year among the four schemes.This trend plays a positive role in reducing carbon dioxide emissions through adjusting the speed of economic growth,improving energy structure and optimizing industry structure after that the net carbon emission achieves the peak.Compared with the speed of economic growth and the optimization of industry structure,the improvement of energy structure makes a greater contribution to reducing carbon dioxide emissions.Under the scheme of comprehensive regulation of the speed of economic growth,improvement of energy structure and optimization of industrial structure,net emissions of carbon dioxide will reach the peak(10.445 billion tons)in 2024 and achieve the carbon neutrality in 2058 in China,which matches with the current situation.