2007—2019年中国城市土地价格的空间分化

Spatial divergence of urban land prices in China from 2007 to 2019

土地价格是城市综合发展水平的反映,厘清中国城市土地价格的时空演变特征及其成因,有助于从宏观上把握地区间的发展差异。本文以地级行政区为研究对象,系统分析2007—2019年中国332个城市综合土地价格和住宅、商服、工矿仓储用地价格的演变特征及驱动因素,主要结论如下:①2007—2019年间中国城市综合地价呈现显著的上涨趋势,由2007年的392.34元/m^(2)上升至2019年的1357.31元/m^(2),年均增长80.73元/m^(2);地价水平在空间上呈现“东南高,西北低”的格局。②三种主要地类的价格及增速高低依次为:住宅用地>商服用地>工矿仓储用地,发展逐渐分化,差距不断扩大。③不同等级城市的土地价格逐渐分化为三类:高速增长型(一线城市)、平稳增长型(新一线城市和二线城市)和缓慢增长型(三线城市、四线城市和五线城市),呈现出明显的“马太效应”。④人均地区生产总值、人口密度和普通中小学学校数越高的城市,各类土地价格越高;本地人均地区生产总值、第二产业占比和第三产业占比越高的城市,其相邻城市的住宅和商服地价越高,工矿仓储地价越低。

Urban land price reflects the comprehensive strength of a city,which is influenced by economy,society,policy,and other factors.Therefore,it is vital to clarify the patterns of temporal changes and spatial differences of cities'land prices and their causes in China from a macroscopic perspective,which could help to grasp the development differences among regions and set the appropriate policies.On account of the above background,we measured the temporal and spatial variations of the integrated land prices and the prices of residential land,commercial land,and industrial and mining storage land of 332 cities in China from 2007 to 2019,and these analyses were conducted on prefecture-level administrative regions.Based on these results,the direct and indirect effects of various economic and social factors on the prices of the three land-use types were further analyzed.The main conclusions are as follows:(1)The integrated land price showed a significant upward trend with an average annual increase of 80.73 yuan/m^(2) at the national scale from 2007 to 2019,which rose from 392.34 yuan/m^(2) in 2007 to 1357.31 yuan/m^(2) in 2019.(2)From the perspective of land prices for three major landuse types,both the land prices and their growth rates were in the following order:residential land>commercial land>industrial and mining storage land.The land prices of the three landuse types diverged from 2007 to 2019,showing a widening price gap and a clear Matthew effect.(3)As for land prices in cities of different hierarchies,the land prices dropped as the decrease of the ranking of the city.The land price changes of cities in different hierarchies could be divided into three classes:high-speed growth(first-tier cities),steady growth(new first-tier cities and second-tier cities),and slow growth(third-,fourth-,and fifth-tier cities).(4)Both the land prices and their change rates during the study period of the three major land-use types showed a pattern of“high in the southeast and low in the northwest”in spatial distribution.(5)The per capita GDP,population density,and numbers of general primary schools and secondary schools of a city had positive effects on the prices of all land types in the city.The per capita GDP,the proportion of secondary industry,and the proportion of tertiary industry had positive effects on the prices of residential land and commercial land,and a negative effect on the price of industrial and mining storage land in its neighboring cities.