基于系统动力学的我国民用建筑面积预测

Prediction of Civil Building Scale in China Based on System Dynamics Model

民用建筑面积是建筑能耗测算的重要参数,明晰我国既有民用建筑数据,根据不同的发展路径预测我国民用建筑面积的发展规模,对我国实现建筑可持续发展有重要的意义。基于经济、社会、文化等目标建立了民用建筑面积发展系统动力学模型,选取GDP、人口、城镇化率和第二产业占比4个指标。对我国民用建筑发展路径提出7种假设情景,分别代表了我国经济政策、人口政策以及节能减排政策对建筑产业的影响。结果表明:(1)基准情景下我国民用建筑面积在2020年和2035年分别达到668.17亿m^(2)和805.70亿m^(2),民用建筑运行能耗(除北方采暖)分别为8.77亿tce和10.58亿tce;(2)S1情景我国民用建筑面积预测结果高于基准情景,2035年达到了813.59亿m^(2)。S2-S4情景预测结果低于基准情景,S4情景最小,在2035年为755.58亿m^(2);(3)经济增长,产业结构优化,人口发展和城市化进程的推进都对我国民用建筑规模起到了推动作用,在我国民用建筑中长期发展过程中,经济因素贡献度大于人口因素,进而影响建筑能耗增长。

Building scale is an important parameter of civil building energy consumption.It is of great significance to clarify the existing civil building data and predict the development scale of China’s civil building area according to different development paths.Based on economic,social and cultural goals,establish a system dynamics model of civil building area development,selects GDP,population,urbanization rate and the proportion of secondary industry as four indicators.Seven scenarios are proposed for the development path of civil buildings in China,which represent the impact of China’s economic policy,population policy and energy conservation and emission reduction policy on the construction industry.The results show that:(1)under the benchmark scenario,China’s civil building area will reach 66.817 billion m^(2) and 80.570 billion m^(2) in 2020 and 2035 respectively,the energy consumption of civil buildings(except heating in North China)is 877 million TCE and 1058 million TCE respectively.(2)The results of S1-S3 scenario are higher than those of the benchmark scenario,and S1 scenario is the largest,reaching 83.8 billion m^(2) in 2035.The forecast results of S4-S6 scenario are lower than that of the benchmark scenario,and S6 scenario is the smallest,which is 75.558 billion m^(2) in 2035.(3)Economic growth,the continuous optimization of industrial structure,the development of population and the promotion of urbanization have all played a role in promoting the scale of China’s civil construction.Meanwhile,in the medium and long-term development process of China’s civil construction,the contribution of economic factors is greater than that of population factors,which further affects the growth of building energy consumption.