中国经济增长潜力展望:2020-2035、2035-2050

Prospect of China’s Economic Growth Potential:2020-2035、2035-2050

本文基于二战后5个追赶型经济体的成功发展经验及后来者优势在预测中国增长潜力方面的关键作用,利用计量模型预测中国在2020-2035年和2035-2050年的增长潜力。研究结果表明:依靠后来者优势,中国在2020-2035年还有年均约8%的增长潜力,如能实现年均5%-6%的增长,那么到2035年就能基本实现社会主义现代化;在2035-2050年,依靠后来者优势,中国还有约6%的增长潜力,如果能够实现4%的增长,那么到2049年,中国GDP总规模为美国的两倍,全面建成社会主义现代化强国。

Based on the successful development experience of five catching-up economies after World War II and the key role of latecomers’advantages in predicting China's growth potential,this paper uses an econometric model to predict China s growth potential in 2020-2035 and 2035-2050.The research results show that relying on the advantages of latecomers,China still has an average annual growth potential of about 8%during 2020-2035,and if it can achieve an average annual growth of 5%-6%,then by 2035,the socialist modernization will be basically achieved;in 2035-2050,relying on the advantages of latecomers,China still has a potential of about 6%,and if it can achieve an average annual growth of 4%,then by 2049,China’s per capita GDP will reach about half of the United States,and China’s total GDP will be twice that of the United States,and a modem socialist country will be fully built up.