和田市大气污染物特征及对儿童呼吸系统疾病住院人次数的影响

Research on characteristics of air pollutants in Hotan City and its impact on number of hospitalized children with respiratory system diseases

目的探讨沙尘地区大气污染物变化特征及对儿童呼吸系统疾病的影响。方法收集2016—2019年期间和田市气象资料和同期和田市三级甲等医院儿童呼吸系统疾病住院人次数,采用统计描述和Pearson相关分析等方法分析大气污染物变化特征和不同大气污染物对儿童呼吸系统疾病住院人次数的影响,建立自回归积分滑动平均模型(autoregressive integrated moving average,ARIMA)。结果和田市4年间呼吸系统疾病患儿住院人次数为2888例,儿童呼吸系统性疾病住院人次数、大气污染物浓度和沙尘天气均呈明显的周期性变化。各大气污染物与气象因素存在相关性,其中PM_(2.5)与PM_(10)相关性最大(r=0.953,P<0.01)。儿童上呼吸道感染与PM_(10)、PM_(2.5)呈正相关(r=0.433、0.358,均P<0.01);支气管炎住院人次数与PM_(10)、PM_(2.5)呈正相关(r=0.431、0.353,均P<0.01);肺炎与PM_(10)、PM_(2.5)、CO呈正相关(r=0.395、0.376、0.376,均P<0.01);哮喘与PM_(10)、PM_(2.5)、CO、NO_(2)、O_(3)呈正相关(r=0.376、0.355、0.560、0.544、0.326,均P<0.01)。建立了ARIMA模型,筛选出的最优模型为上呼吸道感染ARIMA(1,1,1)、支气管炎ARIMA(1,1,2)、肺炎ARIMA(0,1,0)和哮喘ARIMA(0,0,0)。结论沙尘是造成和田市大气污染物的主要原因,和田市大气污染物与气象因素存在明显的相关性。沙尘、PM_(2.5)、PM_(10)、CO、NO_(2)、O_(3)均在不同程度上与儿童呼吸系统性疾病住院人次数有关。

Objective To explore the change characteristics of air pollutants in sand dust areas and their impact on children’s respiratory diseases.Methods The meteorological data of Hotan City from 2016 to 2019 and the number of hospitalizations of children with respiratory diseases in grade-A tertiary hospitals in Hotan City during the same period were collected.Statistical description and Pearson correlation analysis were used to analyze the characteristics of changes in air pollutants and the effects of different air pollutants on number of hospitalized children with respiratory system diseases.The autoregressive integrated moving average(ARIMA)model was established.Results During the four years in Hotan City,there were 2888 cases of hospitalized children with respiratory system diseases.The number of hospitalized children with respiratory system diseases,the concentration of air pollutants and the dust weather all showed obvious periodic changes.Various air pollutants were correlated with meteorological factors,of which PM_(2.5)and PM_(10)had the highest correlation(r=0.953,P<0.01).The upper respiratory tract infection in children was positively correlated with PM_(10)and PM_(2.5)(r=0.433,0.358,both P<0.01).The number of hospitalizations with bronchitis was positively correlated with PM_(10)and PM_(2.5)(r=0.431,0.353,both P<0.01).The pneumonia was positively correlated with PM_(10),PM_(2.5)and CO(r=0.395,0.376,0.376,all P<0.01).The asthma is positively correlated with PM_(10),PM_(2.5),CO,NO_(2) and O_(3)(r=0.376,0.355,0.560,0.544,0.326,all P<0.01).An ARIMA model was established,and the optimal models selected were upper respiratory tract infection ARIMA(1,1,1),bronchitis ARIMA(1,1,2),pneumonia ARIMA(0,1,0),asthma ARIMA(0,0,0).Conclusions Sand dust is the main cause of air pollutants in Hotan City,and the air pollutants in Hotan City are obviously related to meteorological factors.Sand dust,PM_(2.5),PM_(10),CO,NO_(2) and O_(3) are all related to number of hospitalizations of children with respiratory system diseases to varying degrees.