新安江模型对某水库洪水预报模拟可靠性分析

Reliability Analysis of Xin’anjiang Model for Flood Forecasting Simulation of a Reservoir

20世纪50年代以来,全球许多水利水文科学家以计算机信息技术和系统理论为基础普遍研究各种水文现象,相继提出了各种较为流行的水文模型,并应用于水库洪水预报工作,得到了可靠的结果。其中基于蓄满产流原理的新安江模型的核心是流域蓄水容量曲线。选取某水库历史上代表性洪水应用模型进行模拟分析,从模拟效果的可能性、误差情况等方面综合评估模型预报洪水的可靠性。实证研究结果显示,新安江模型对水库洪水预报结果符合许可误差要求,合格率稳定在60%以上,符合规范丙等级别。模型模拟合格效果的评估很好地体现了新安江模型对水库洪水预报有足够的可靠性。

Since the 1950s, many water conservancy and hydrological scientists around the world have generally studied various hydrological phenomena based on computer information technology and system theory, and successively put forward various popular hydrological models, which have been applied to reservoir flood forecasting and obtained reliable results. The core of Xin’anjiang model based on the principle of full storage and runoff production is the basin water storage capacity curve. The representative flood application model in the history of a reservoir is selected for simulation analysis, and the reliability of flood prediction by the model is comprehensively evaluated from the possibility of simulation effect and error. The empirical results show that the flood prediction results of Xin’anjiang model meet the requirements of allowable error. The qualified rate is stable at more than 60%, and meets the grade C of the specification. The evaluation of the qualified effect of model simulation well reflects the sufficient reliability of Xin’anjiang model for reservoir flood prediction.