全球商品贸易网络生长特征及动力机制

Growth characteristics of the global commodity trade network and its dynamic mechanism

经济全球化时代,国家间商品流动频繁,商品贸易网络化特征突出,亟需从关系网络的生长逻辑探究全球商品贸易的互动场景与演进机理。本文基于1996—2016年全球商品贸易流量数据,借助社会网络分析方法和ArcGIS可视化工具揭示了全球商品贸易网络的生长过程,运用指数随机图模型分析了全球商品贸易网络生长的动力机制。结果表明:①全球商品贸易网络呈扩张式生长,逐步形成“三核”互联主导的“大三角”空间结构,网络骨架的三大集群凸显。中国主导的集群大幅拓展,美国和德国主导的集群日益收缩。各国家(地区)在网络中的分工明确,网络功能差异显著并表现出不同变化特征。②全球商品贸易网络生长受自组织性、国家(地区)匹配性、国家(地区)集散性等内生动力和外生网络嵌入性等外在推力的共同驱动。其中,互惠关系是自组织性的主要结构,国家(地区)收入水平、市场开放趋同性和制度环境异质性是匹配性的关键因素,经济优势和产业竞争力是集散性的重要基础,殖民历史网络、留学生交流网络、语言同构网络、论文合作网络是重要的外生网络。传统的比较优势理论仍然适用于全球商品贸易网络生长机理的解释,尤其对国家(地区)匹配性和集散性的解释力更强。

In the era of economic globalization,with the frequent commodity flows between countries and prominent characteristics of commodity trade networking,it is urgent to explore the interactions and evolution mechanism of global commodity trade based on the logic of the relationship network.Combining the social network analysis method and ArcGIS visualization tool and based on the data of commodity trade flow in various countries from 1996 to 2016,this study revealed the growth process,spatial patterns,and dynamic mechanism of the global commodity trade network.The results indicate that:(1)The network shows expansionary growth,and the“big triangle”of spatial structure with the interaction of three cores is becoming increasingly more mature.The advantages of the three commodity trade clusters also become clearer.The cluster led by China has expanded dramatically,while those led by the United States and Germany have shrunk.Division of labor in the network is clear among countries,and the network functions are significantly different and show different characteristics of change.(2)The growth of global commodity trade networks is driven by endogenous dynamics such as self-organization,national matching,national distribution,as well as external thrusts such as exogenous network embedding.Reciprocal relationships are the main structure of self-organization.National income levels,market opening convergence,and institutional environment heterogeneity are the key factors of matching.Economic advantages and industrial competitiveness are important foundations of distribution.The colonial history network,the international student exchange network,the language isomorphism network,and the cooperative publication network are important exogenous networks.The law of comparative advantage is still applicable to explain the growth of global commodity trade networks,especially for national matching and distribution.