失效频率修正对风险结果的影响分析

Analysis on Effect of Failure Frequency Correction on Risk Results

定量风险评估过程中失效频率对风险结果的影响一直都是研究的重中之重。通过修正事故发生概率来提高定量风险分析精度相对于修正事故后果来说是更为可行的一种方法。本文运用DNV(挪威船级社)开发的SATETI软件对某化工厂一液氯站的整体风险进行定量风险评估,并通过加持独立保护层的判定修正失效频率,对比修正前后风险影响的大小,量化失效频率修正对风险评估工作的影响。

In the process of quantitative risk assessment,the influence of failure frequency on risk results has always been the top priority of research.It is a more feasible method to improve the accuracy of quantitative risk analysis by correcting the accident probability than correcting the accident consequences.SAFETI software developed by DNV was used to conduct quantitative risk assessment on the overall risk of a chlorine station in a chemical plant,correct the failure frequency through the judgment of adding independent protective layer,compare the risk impact before and after correction,and quantify the impact of failure frequency correction on risk assessment.