互联网使用会影响居民生育意愿吗?

Will Internet Use Affect Fertility Desire?

低生育率是中国亟待解决的重要问题。使用中国家庭追踪调查数据以及相匹配的城市统计数据和百度搜索指数,实证分析了互联网使用对居民生育意愿的影响及其内在机制,拓展了人口学的相关研究。控制了影响生育意愿的其他因素和内生性问题后,分析结果表明,使用互联网的居民比不使用者的生育意愿降低了约10.5%,居住在经济发达城市、低学历、低收入的互联网使用者降幅更加明显。进一步的分析表明,负面信息机制、效用替代机制和婚姻满意度机制是互联网使用降低居民生育意愿的重要途径。此外,互联网使用也弱化了居民的实际生育行为,并削弱了全面两孩政策的实施效果。这些研究发现为理解中国低生育率问题提供了一个新的角度和思路。

Using data from the China Family Panel Studies and the matched urban data and Baidu search index, this paper examines the effects of internet use on fertility desire as well as its underlying mechanisms. After controlling for other influencing factors and endogenous issues, the results show that residents who use the internet have about 10.5% lower fertility desire than non-users, especially for internet users who live in economically developed cities, with low education and low income. It is further identified that negative information mechanism, utility substitution mechanism, and marital satisfaction mechanism are the ways through which internet use reduces fertility desire. In addition, internet use also influences the actual fertility behavior and weakens the effect of the universal two-child policy. Our study provides a new perspective for understanding the low fertility problem.