上网为什么会影响个人生育意愿?

Why Does Internet Use Affect Fertility Intentions?

利用2017年中国综合社会调查(CGSS2017)数据实证分析发现,上网整体上会降低个人生育意愿,对生育多少的意愿的影响大于对要不要生育的意愿的影响。上网影响个人生育意愿存在两种机制:一是增加生育焦虑,促进个人生育观念改变;二是刺激个人消费,挤压可用于生育养育孩子的经济预算。进一步分析发现,不同目的的上网行为对个人生育意愿的影响存在差异,以学习、工作、社交为目的的上网对个人生育意愿没有显著影响,但以娱乐和购物消费为目的的上网会显著降低个人生育意愿;与上网不同,报纸、杂志、电视、手机定制消息等传统媒介的使用对个人生育意愿没有显著影响。为防范上网对个人生育意愿的负面影响,需要加强网络信息监管,合理引导网络消费,帮助个人树立积极的生育观和正确的消费观。

Based on CGSS2017 data, this paper examines the effects of surfing the internet on fertility intentions. The results show that surfing the internet will reduce individuals’ fertility intentions. The effects on the intended number of children are greater than that on whether to have children. There are two mechanisms for these effects. One is increasing anxiety about childbirth and thus changing the individual’s attitudes towards giving birth. The other is raising personal consumption which squeezes the economic budget for childbearing and childrearing. The effects of internet use on fertility intentions vary across different purposes for getting online. Using the internet for study, work or social contact has no significant effects on individuals’ fertility intentions, while using the internet for shopping or entertainment significantly reduces fertility intentions. Other conventional media usage, such as newspapers, magazines, television, and mobile phone message has no significant influence. To prevent the negative impact of internet usage on fertility intentions, it is necessary to strengthen the supervision of network information, reasonably guide online consumption, and help individuals to establish a positive attitude towards fertility and consumption.