碳中和对宏观经济的影响

Impact of Carbon Neutrality on Macro Economy

本文初步探讨了碳中和对中国宏观经济的影响,发现:首先,低碳投资和由此带来的技术进步是脱碳转型过程中促进经济增长的主要因素;而棕色资产搁浅、成本上升和转型过程中的失业问题会给经济造成负面影响。其次,基于上述影响机制,碳中和政策对经济增长是推动还是拖累,受到一国产业结构、资源禀赋和进出口结构等因素的影响。最后,中国的经济结构特点决定了中国更有可能在脱碳转型中获得长期增长收益。

This paper preliminarily discusses the impact of carbon-neutrality on China*s macro-economy,and finds that:first,low-carbon investment and the resulting technological progress are the main factors to promote economic growth in the process of decarbonization transformation;the stranded brown assets,rising costs and unemployment in the process of transformation will have a negative impact on the economy.Second,based on the above impact mechanism,whether the carbon-neutrality policy promotes or hinders the economic growth is affected by a country's industrial structure,resource endowment,import and export structure and other factors.Finally,the characteristics of China s economic structure determine that China is more likely to obtain long-term growth benefits in decarbonization transformation.