外部货币政策对中国企业杠杆的影响--基于面板分位数回归方法的分析

Impact of External Monetary Policy on Leverage of Chinese Enterprises--Based on Panel Quartile Regression Method

本文基于中国非金融企业杠杆结构性上升的数据事实,结合均值回归和面板分位数回归方法,以美国货币政策为例分析外部货币政策对中国企业杠杆的总体影响以及对不同杠杆水平企业的影响差异。实证研究表明,总体上外部宽松货币政策会推动中国非金融企业部门杠杆上升,并会导致中国非金融企业内部结构性杠杆上升问题更加严重。同时,本文依据企业所有制、行业外部融资依赖、地区金融市场化程度等特征,进一步探讨了外部货币政策对中国非金融企业杠杆的影响变化。

Based on the data fact of the structural rise of leverage of Chinese non-financial enterprises, this paper combines with the methods of mean regression and panel quartile regression and takes the U.S. monetary policy as a sample to analyze the overall impact of external monetary policy on the leverage of Chinese enterprises and the difference of the impact on enterprises with different leverage levels. Empirical research shows that, on the whole, the external loose monetary policy will promote the rise of leverage in China’s non-financial enterprise sector, and lead to the further rise of structural leverage in China’s non-financial enterprises. At the same time, based on the characteristics of enterprise ownership, external financing dependence of the industry and the degree of regional financial marketization, this paper further discusses the impact of external monetary policy on the leverage of Chinese non-financial enterprises.