基于系统动力学的装配式建筑产业政策模拟及节能减排效益评价

Policy Simulations of the Prefabricated Building Industry and Evaluations of Benefits for Energy Conservation and Emission Reduction Based on System Dynamics

以装配式建筑为研究对象,通过分析与其发展相关的各因素间的关系,构建了相应的系统动力学模型,并以装配式建筑示范城市济南市为例,对不同政策情景下装配式建筑的发展及其节能减排效益进行动态模拟,分析政策类型及实施力度的改变对其发展趋势的影响。研究结果表明,一方面装配式建筑的节能减排效益尚未充分发挥,加强政策实施力度有利于进一步扩大其社会经济效益。另一方面,不同政策对装配式建筑发展及其节能减排效益的影响程度存在差异,其中技术政策的作用效果最为显著,需求引导政策、建设环节政策和财政政策也产生了比较明显的影响,相比之下,金融、税收等支持政策的作用效果相对较弱。

This article took prefabricated construction as the research object,through the analysis of the relationship between the various factors,the corresponding system dynamics model was established,and took the example of Jinan city.And then,dynamic simulation of prefabricated construction development and the energy-conservation and emission-reduction(ECER)benefits under different policy scenarios was carried out.Then,the influence of changes in policy types and implementation intensity on its development trend was analyzed.The results show that,on the one hand,the efficiency of energy conservation and emission reduction of prefabricated buildings has not been fully brought into play,and strengthening policy implementation is conducive to further expanding its social and economic benefits.On the other hand,different policies have different effects on the development of prefabricated buildings and their energy conservation and emission reduction benefits.Among them,technology policy has the most significant effect.The demand policy,construction policy and fiscal policy also have obvious effects.By contrast,the role of the finance policy,tax policy and other supportive policies’effects are relatively weak.