农业灰水足迹与农业经济增长的脱钩关系研究——基于长江经济带11省市的实证分析

A Study on the Decoupling Relationship Between Agricultural Grey Water Footprint and Agricultural Economic Growth:Based on the Empirical Analysis of 11 Provinces and Cities in the Yangtze River Economic Belt

为探究长江经济带农业水污染与农业经济之间的协调关系,在测算长江经济带11省市2008-2019年农业灰水足迹,明晰其时空结构变化特征的基础上,基于脱钩理论对各省市农业水污染与经济发展的脱钩关系进行分析,并进一步构建LMDI分解模型探究二者脱钩关系变化的驱动因素。研究发现:(1)长江经济带农业灰水足迹先升高后降低,农业水污染近年来得到有效控制;(2)农业灰水足迹与经济增长协调关系转变为强脱钩状态,农业经济与农业水环境之间的协调程度明显增强;(3)农业技术水平和劳动力规模效应对脱钩变化起负向驱动作用,经济水平效应起显著正向驱动作用,产业结构效应近三年起正向驱动作用。相关研究结果及政策建议有助于长江经济带农业水污染治理,推动区域水生态环境与农业经济绿色协调发展。

In order to explore the coordination relationship between agricultural water pollution and agricultural economy in the Yangtze River Economic Belt, the decoupling relationship between agricultural water pollution and economic development of 11 provinces and cities in the Yangtze River Economic Belt was analyzed based on the decoupling theory based on the calculation of agricultural grey water footprint from 2008 to 2019 and the characteristics of spatio-temporal structure change. Furthermore, a further LMDI decomposition model was built to explore the driving factors of the decoupling relationship. The results showed that:(1)The agricultural grey water footprint increased first and then decreased, and agricultural water pollution was effectively controlled in recent years.(2) The coordination between agricultural grey water footprint and economic growth changed into strong decoupling state, and the coordination degree between agricultural economy and agricultural water environment increased obviously.(3)Agricultural technology level and labor force size effect played a negative driving role,economic level effect plays a significant positive driving role, and industrial structure effect played a positive driving role. Relevant research results and policy suggestions were helpful for agricultural water pollution control in the Yangtze River Economic Belt to promote the coordinated development of regional water ecological environment and agricultural economy.